The most accurate thing to say, given the quality of horses in today’s racing, is “don’t know.” (Yes, I know this is an old question, but the truth is I haven’t done anything yet.) We do have some good data for the quality of horses in today’s racing, however. I wrote a study about this earlier in my career. To summarise it, here’s my summary of the data:
The average number of years an average horse in the sport must wait to compete before winning a title is 7-2/3 years. The average number of years an average horse must wait to win an Emmy is only 6-1/2 years.
These numbers have nothing to do with an individual horse’s ability to win a race, rather they are based on the average number of years horses have to compete before being crowned an Emmy winner. The average number of years an average horse must wait to win an Emmy is only 6-1/2 years. To give some perspective, the average number of years an average horse has to compete before being crowned an Emmy Champion is 7-0/3 years. This is because that is the same average number of years horses must compete before being officially declared Emmy Winners.
Some of the horses that are still in contention for the 2015 Emmy (which, as I’m guessing, will be won or lost by horses of all skill levels) are:
St. Clair, winner of the 2015 Preakness Stakes and an Emmy Champion for her 1,500th career race in the Preakness Stakes.
In the past, the top four on the list (with the exception of Ingrid Lundeberg, who has lost two consecutive races in a row and is in the running to lose this year’s Derby) have been the horses I called “elite,” and they haven’t been able to win an Emmy.
That being said, every year is an opportunity. The top-ranked horse in each event will be the best horse for each category. In 2015, the horses that are most likely to win an Emmy should be, in order of position:
St. Clair/Cheryl and Preakness Stakes (1.26 points/1.27 point)
Preakness Stakes (a 3.6 win or a 5.3 point win)
Mud Run Stakes (a 3.8 win or a 5.9 point win)
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