Here’s what we know
What is it?
There’s the race for the presidency. There’s the horse race for Senate seats. And there is a race for president in 2020.
So that raises the stakes.
There were only four horse races in our history that went down to the wire: 1892, 1932, 1936 and 1948. In those four races, only one candidate prevailed.
For the first time since 1872, Democrats and Republicans are neck-and-neck in the race for the White House. At this point, we know who will win the White House.
But what will determine the race for Senate and House seats?
In the past, the GOP could win both. That doesn’t appear to be the case with 2018.
As a result, the House, on balance, is a more important battleground in this year’s race. And the Senate races are just as important.
Democrats have been looking forward to a hard-fought election in 2018. With a healthy Democratic primary field and an all-comers contest for the GOP nomination in Kentucky, Democrats can expect to raise a lot of money.
Republicans aren’t in as good shape either. They’ve had a tough primary field, both candidates have faced negative media coverage and the president has been unpopular. That will create greater challenges for the party.
Why do Republicans have the advantages in 2018?
The reason that Republicans have a head start in the 2018 midterms is simple.
They have a Democratic president in 2018. Democrats were always reliant on President Barack Obama but the party has made gains recently in a number of critical states, notably Oregon and Iowa.
It also has the largest voter turnout in a presidential election, meaning more people go to the polls if there is a contested candidate. But, remember, that’s what’s driving voters to the polls. Not the GOP candidate.
The Republican party also has a Senate majority, which means there are more opportunities for Republicans to enact a number of conservative-friendly policies like repealing Obamacare and building a wall along the border between the U.S. and Mexico.
But Republicans also have a president in office that is unpopular. That’s the main reason Republicans are favored in the early polling. But we’re not there yet.
Why is there such a gap between the two parties?
When it comes to what the public thinks about their party’s candidates in midterm elections — as opposed to
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